“全面两孩”实施一年，两孩政策效应初步显现

随着全面两孩政策的实施，二孩家庭在今天的中国越来越多。图为在北京郊区的一个农场，一对小兄弟在欢乐的玩耍。

As the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, there are more two-child families in China. Pictured are two brothers having fun at a farm in Beijing’s suburb. (Photo by Meng Xianglin from People’s Daily)

根据国家统计局发布的1‰抽样调查推算数据，全年出生人口达到1786万人。根据中国国家卫生和计划生育委员会（以下简称“国家卫计委”）提供的统计数据，2016年，中国全国住院分娩活产数为1846万人，两孩政策效果初步显现，符合预期。

中国生育政策的调整完善，带动了两孩出生的明显增加。2013年以前，两孩出生比重在全年出生人口占比始终保持在30%左右。2015年至2016年，两孩及以上占比超过了45%，提高了十几个百分点。统计显示，2011年至2015年，育龄妇女每年减少350万人左右，预计2016年至2020年每年减少500万人左右，而由于两孩政策的完善，中国的出生人口仍保持稳定增长的态势，政策效果显现。

但是，相关配套的经济社会政策与群众的生育意愿、生育行为还存在一定差距，还需要进一步完善有关的配套政策措施。2015年国家卫计委组织的大规模生育意愿调查结果显示，由于经济负担、太费精力和无人看护而不愿生育第二个子女的家庭分别占到74.5%、61.1%、60.5%。照料压力、养育成本、女性职业发展，以及追求生活质量等因素，对生育意愿和生育行为的约束增强了。

有调查显示，育儿成本已经占中国家庭平均收入的近50%，教育支出是最主要的一个负担。托育服务短缺非常严重，0—3岁婴幼儿在中国各类托幼机构的入托率仅为4%，远低于一些发达国家50%的比例。，构建配套政策体系，营造生育友好的社会环境，鼓励人们生育二孩。

 2016年11月3日，河南省郑州市碧沙岗公园，一位母亲带着两个孩子在公园里游玩。人民视觉

On November 3, 2016, two children and their mother are playing at Bishagang Park in Zhengzhou, Central China’s Henan Province. (Photo by People’s Daily)

China’s newborn population reached the highest level since 2000 in 2016, the first year of the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy and the third year of the previous partial two-child policy, data released by relevant Chinese authorities showed, proving that the two-child policy has shown apparent effects.

After a 1‰ sampling survey, the National Bureau of Statistics of China estimated that the newborn population in 2016 amounted to 17.86 million. Statistics from China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) revealed that in 2016, more than 18.46 million infants were delivered in hospitals nationwide.

The adjustment and improvement of China’s birth policy has driven a significant increase in second child. The previous partial two-child policy only allowed couples to have two children if one of them was an only child.

Before 2013, the second children usually accounted for 30 percent of the total newborn population every year. Between 2015 and 2016, that percentage was over 45 percent, a double-digit growth in percentage points.

Statistic showed that from 2011 to 2015, the number of women of childbearing age dropped by approximately 3.5 million each year. It is predicted that from 2016 to 2020, the number will fall by 5 million annually. However, due to the improvement of the two-child policy, China’s newborn population still maintains a growing trend.

Yet, there is still a gap between relevant supporting social and economic policies and the general public’s willingness to actually give birth to a second child, which requires further measures.  

A large-scale survey on people’s willingness to give birth conducted by the NHFPC in 2015 found that 74.5 percent of the families would not raise a second child due to economic reasons, another 61.1 percent would not due to the efforts involved in child-raising while another 60.5 percent would not due to lack of caretakers. Parenthood pressure, raising cost, women’s career development, pursuit of life quality and other factors now pose more limitations on the Chinese people’s willingness to have a second child.

Another survey showed that childcare cost occupies nearly half of the average income of Chinese households, among which education occupies a significant part.

Childcare service is now in severe shortage. Only 4 percent of infants aged between 0 to 3 years old in China receive childcare service from various agencies, far below the 50 percent ratio of some developed countries.

More than 40 departments under the State Council of the People's Republic of China have been assigned specific duties to roll out supporting policies and a birth-friendly social environment so as to encourage people to give birth to a second child.

By Li Hongmei from People’s Daily

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